Stuck in the escalation trap
Remember how mad MAGA was when Charlie Kirk was murdered? Remember how many conservative Americans were ready to fight a full blown civil war due to the actions of a single deranged gunman? Do you remember how volatile the country felt? How dangerously high emotions were during his funeral?
Yesterday, Iran buried Ayatollah ali khamenei. It has been estimated that as many as 15 million Iranians attended public mourning vigils this week. I don't think enough Americans fully appreciate what this feels like on the streets of Tehran.
I do not mourn for this man for a single moment, but millions do. While this regime is despised by most Iranians, it still has fanatical supporters who believe themselves to be fighting for the survival of their civilisation; an identity that is often indivisible from their dogmatic religious convictions. This group believe themselves to be the only true representation of their country, the defenders of morality from depravity, and the needed heavy hand to confront the enemy within...
...and if that sounds familiar, you're starting to understand why this is still so dangerous.
The Iranians that are now in power were raised within a totalitarian state which weaved within every aspect of life the notion of America as the Great Satan. Trump just spent the last three months leaning heavily into character... and now he expects the most radicalised regime supporters that remain in power to negotiate a deal with him? The man who murdered their revered spiritual leader midway through the last negotiations.
It's remarkable to acknowledge, but Trump seems to be genuinely scared the Iranians are going to kill him. In fairness, it might be the first time a US President has been vulnerable in years.
Think about it... if the Iranians actually did assassinate Trump, what is JD Vance going to do? It's not as though the USA can claim any kind of moral outrage for actions that reflect their own.
While millions of Iranians want peace, millions are filled with fury, rage, and religious conviction demanding retribution against a wounded "evil empire" that is now begging for a truce.
They want blood. They may just settle for one man's; perhaps even just his public humiliation. But this is not a group in an emotional state conducive to compromise.
This is why it still feels as though the next step is, unavoidably, escalation.