Reading between the lines...

Things are changing rapidly in the Ukraine War, and there is a lot going on. But I believe the true state of play is best represented by what can be read between the lines.

Firstly, the context isn't important to understand.

Ukraine's new long range drone capability is inflicting catastrophic damage on Russia's energy infrastructure, leading of to crippling fuel shortages within one of the world's largest oil producers.

The Russian advance on the front lines of Ukraine has been effectively halted, thanks in large part to Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian supply lines, with thousands of Russian holiday goers fleeing Crimea in the expectation that the peninsula could soon be completely isolated from logistical support. Many fear that it is only a matter of time before the Ukrainians take out the Kerch Bridge again, cutting the illegally occupied territory off from Russia.

This is occurring as both the UK and French military took the unprecedented steps of boarding and seizing "shadow fleet" oil tankers flying under the Cameroonian flag, but suspected of carrying sanctioned Russian oil. This is significant in the unprecedented confidence being demonstrated by both nations to take tangible military actions against Russian interests.

Then, as NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte lauded Trump in the Oval Office with his usual performative sycophancy, the US President responded to questions about Zelensky by referring to him as "courageous" and adding "I think he's doing pretty well"... a substantial elevation for someone he only months ago condescendingly declared had "no cards".

The change in tone is less likely a change of heart from Trump, and more a recognition that Ukraine is effectively winning the war... and Trump likes a winner. Just as it is for Iran, Ukraine don't need to defeat Russia to achieve victory, they must merely make the cost of sustaining the war intolerable.

With estimates of up to a million Russians dead, Putin's tolerance is unquestionably higher than Trump's, but even he will reach a point where he realises that victory is no longer possible. Both men struggling to maintain their veneer of strength as they're forced to negotiate with someone they promised the world they would vanquish

Europe seems to be offering Trump a lifeline, an opportunity to unhitch himself from Putin's wagon before he's forced to endure yet another geopolitical humiliation, and an opportunity to claim victory for a war that most Americans actually support.

It's against this setting that Zelensky, who recently spoke in private with Trump at the G7 Summit, shared a cryptic message during his nightly address to the nation:

"Our operation, especially concerning Crimea is clearly calculated, and the way the operation is proceeding absolutely proves this. If Ukraine gets exactly what we discussed with our partners at the G7, and this depends on our partners' decision, we will quickly create the conditions under which Russia will be forced to choose peace. We are counting on a positive response from our partners. They know exactly what I'm talking about."

This could mean many things, though I suspect the real target of that message was in Russia. Not Putin, but the Russian people, particularly the elite.

They know they aren't winning the war, but Zelensky is making it clear that Crimea was in play. He wants them to believe they are at risk of losing everything. Because if the regime falls, the elite lose all of the immense privileges that come with it.

Remember, Putin has absolute control of the Russian media, has greatly limited public access to the internet, and has criminalised dissent. If there was volatility among the Russian elites, we may not be able to hear it

But listen to this speech on 28 June before a gathering of the leadership of the political party that has held an authoritarian grip on power since 1991. This was yhe Plenary Session of the 23rd Congress of the United Russia Party, the men who have become fantastically rich within this man's Mafia state:

"The Congress of United Russia, our leading political party, is taking place at a difficult time, one could say a fateful time for the country during a period of profound systemic transformation of the entire world.

At the same time, Russia is experiencing crude, one could say without any exaggeration, unprecedented pressure from Western elites.
They cannot inflict a strategic defeat on us. They cannot win on the battlefield. They are trying to shake the political situation to sow internal turmoil. That is not working either.

They continue to encourage the Kiev regime which they have chosen as a battering ram in the struggle against Russia, sparing neither the Ukrainian people while the regime itself is retreating along the entire line of combat contact and therefore has turned to outright terrorist actions.

And what else can one call deliberate strikes against civilians, against civilian facilities, and the practically open recruitment inside our country of renegades to carry out sabotage and terrorist attacks?

The West prefers not to notice any of this, does not notice it.

Russia is confidently resisting all attempts to restrain our development. We have enough strength, resources, and political will.

No one should have any doubts about that."

This doesn't sound like a President assuring his elite that he can win this war, but one promising them that they can survive it.

Consider what the reality within Russia actually is if the message Putin is desperate to convey was that any division was the mere manifestations of Western conspiracy.

In my previous profession, being able to recognise someone's emotional state was a reoccurring lesson, you end up teaching yourself how to read people.

Putin's scared. I've never seen him scared before.