Everything has changed

On 16 March 2022, less than a month after Putin ordered his tanks over the Ukrainian border, a defiant yet visibly exhausted Volodymyr Zelensky addressed a gathering of NATO leaders.

His speech spoke of the heroic resistance that had already shattered the predictions of military analysts around the world. But even then, many felt as though the Ukrainian President was on borrowed time.

Russian soldiers were already within Kyiv's outer suburbs; their eventual retreat revealing irrefutable evidence of civilian massacres that offer a haunting glimpse into what we cannot see within the large parts of the country that remain subjugated.

Within that context, Zelensky presented as a leader with admirable bravery, reiterating the same pleas for air defence capabilities that would echo throughout the war.

But perhaps most poignantly, the speech included what felt like a heart breaking concession:

“It is clear that Ukraine is not a member of Nato; we understand this. For years we heard about the apparently open door, but have already also heard that we will not enter there, and these are truths and must be acknowledged.”

Four years is a lifetime in war.


This week, Zelensky attended his fifth NATO summit. His optimism hasn't dimmed, but his posture is incomparable.

The Zelensky that stood before NATO in 2022 stood as the embodiment of resistance, resilience, and resolve. The Zelensky that stands before them today reveals conviction, confidence, and capability. He is no longer a man who believes Ukraine can survive, he is a man who believes Ukraine can win.

He is no longer the desperate foreigner banging at the castle walls begging for help, he now knows that the castle walls would crumble without him.

He held that tone when he asked of NATO leaders: “I have a question for you. Do you really believe it? Do you really believe it would be right to leave outside Nato, a country and a people with this level of defensive capability?”

“If we already have these capabilities, if Ukrainians already know how to fight like this, then it does make sense for these capabilities to become a part of the alliance’s collective defence that would make all of us stronger,”

"A strong Ukraine together with them in NATO, alongside other NATO countries, means security for everyone on the European continent."

His tone is justified.

Compelled by existential necessity, Ukraine has become one of the world's leading innovators in drone warfare and, increasingly, drone defence.
It is fighting the only sustained, large-scale drone campaign in history, forcing it to develop technologies and tactics that few other countries even know exist.

The USA has effectively acknowledged that it cannot defend energy infrastructure in the Gulf States from Iran's Shahed drones. It is estimated around 4,400 of them were fired during the 37 days of the war, with around 90% reportedly stopped from reaching their target by US made air defence systems.

In that same time period, Russia fired more than 10,000 towards Ukraine, a substantially larger territory to defend, and the Ukrainians are reporting the same success rate.

Yet while the USA is struggling to replenish its stock of Patriot Missile interceptors, with each shot costing more than $4 million, Ukraine is sustaining its defence for months now with domestically made interceptor drones that cost less than $5,000 each.

Drones have changed warfare forever, and only two nations on earth actually know how to fight a modern drone war; Ukraine and Russia. Right now, Ukraine, with a lot of help from European manufacturing, is winning that drone war.

Zelensky knows that NATO has no idea how to defend itself from Russia. Every experienced NATO soldier just became a rookie at a terrifying new form of war in which, according to Russian military bloggers, Russian solider have a life expectancy of 35 minutes when entering the vast drone kill zone.

For years Ukraine has pursued a security guarantee from NATO. Ukraine is now NATO's security guarantee. If Kyiv falls, the Baltics are next. Zelensky knows this... NATO needs to understand this.

If there is one thing western security analysts should acknowledge, including myself, it's that we have repeatedly under estimated Zelensky. But more than anything, we have under estimated the Ukrainian people.